And the Future?.......

 

gapyear.com (2012). The future of travel [online]. Available from: <https://www.gapyear.com/news/163953/the-future-of-travel>. [Accessed 09th January 2016].

Just to look at future situations a little more, as after all, the past is behind us, the present is now, but the future, well that’s a whole blank page.  Trying to predict what will be written on that page is of great importance to all life on the planet and the actions and choices we make today will play out in the future for generations to come. 

You many by now of noted somewhat of a bias to my view. You would not be wrong and although I remain optimistic, I am a self-confessed climate change worrier, I try to remain impartial but as I see it, it is far better to assume worst case scenario and act to limit the effects then to sit back and wait to see what happens. 

I continued looking at paper relating to future situations and came to note a paper by  Schimela et al, (2015) discussing increasing CO₂ in relation to the terrestrial carbon cycle, “feedbacks from the terrestrial carbon cycle significantly affect future climate change” (Schimela et al, 2015), well that got my attention, I read on and according to Schimela et al, (2015) this is among one of the largest and most uncertain feedbacks, but the paper looks at this in relation to the CO₂ effect, which is described as an increase in photosynthesis rates in relation to  increasing CO₂ on terrestrial carbon storage (Schimela et al, 2015).  It would seem that out little green friends (the plants, I have not gone mad and started hoping that E.T is coming to save the world!) are working hard to try to clean up after us.  This effect increases with increased CO₂ and temperature, meaning that in warmer climates we really do need to limit deforestation and look after our green friends. 

Unfortunately, there is a limit to this effect and when this is exceeded the CO₂ effect is no longer able to keep pace as it were, at this point growth rates of CO₂ will increase. 

What I am left considering is the fact that so far all of the paper I have looked at point to ever increasing levels of CO₂ leading to increasing global temperature, so I am left pondering, if the plants are already working hard, how fast will rates increase when they’re no longer able to keep pace?  Again it would seem that in order for nature to help us we must also help it by limiting CO₂ emissions.  But would we see continued warming following a halt to emissions?  This was a question addressed by Frölicheret al, (2014), they comment that many studies have shown that even following an emissions halt there is a high likelihood that for many centuries to follow the global mean surface temperature would not decrease and could in fact increase.

What does this mean for us? Well Salinger(2005) has considered this question too, working on the idea that temperature increase will fall somewhere between 2°C to 4.5°C, Salinger (2005) suggest that we are likely to see extremes of climate and alterations to precipitation such a heavy rains and droughts and predicts unprecedented changes to climate that human settlement has never had to endure.  That all sounds a bit scary, but it does bring me back to my first blog post when I was discussing the book I was reading by Mark Lynas, Six Degrees, Our Future on a Hotter Planet.  It seems to me that all signs point to one thing, reduce CO₂ emissions or be prepared to adapt to the consequences.  But that is just my view and although I am aware that it is a view shared by many, it may not be yours. 

References;

Frölicher, T.L.  Winton, M.  Sarmiento, J.L.  (2014). Continued global warming after CO₂ emissions stoppage. Nature Climate Change. 4, pp.40 – 44

Salinger, M.J. (2005). Climate Variability and Change: Past Present and Future – An Overview.  Climatic Change. 70, pp.9 - 29.

Schimela, D.  Stephens, B.B.  Fishera, J.B.  (2015). Effect of increasing CO₂ on the terrestrial carbon cycle. PNAS. 112, pp.436–441.